Abstract—This paper presents a methodology for assessing wear indicators and the service life of wheelsets of TE33A diesel locomotives operated on the Kazakhstan railway network, based on their dimensional parameters. To evaluate the reliability of wheelsets under operating conditions, the service life corresponding to a 90% probability of failure-free operation was determined and compared with existing regulatory requirements. The rolling surface thickness and flange profile were selected as the key parameters influencing wheelset reliability and determining the operational service life. It should be noted that TE33A locomotives are equipped with monoblock (unbandaged) wheelsets; therefore, once the service life is exhausted, the wheels are subject to complete replacement. The study applies a mathematical assessment methodology based on reliability theory to assess the service life of wheelset components. Methods of mathematical statistics were used to analyze failure-related operational data. The distribution of time to failure was approximated using the Pearson distribution, which made it possible to estimate the mean time to failure, variance, and other reliability characteristics. The obtained results allow for the identification of key parameters affecting wear and provide a basis for determining maintenance and repair intervals.

Keywords—railway transport reliability, wheelset service life, reliability theory, mathematical statistics, maintenance, failure prediction

Cite: Amandyk Yelshibekov, Gabit Bakyt, Galymzhan Ashirbayev, Toleu Balgabekov, Gulzhazira Khamitova, Nurbek Jakupov, Islam Adil, and Imangali Mikhtibek, "Assessment of the Service Life of TE33A Series Locomotive Wheelset Components Using Statistical Analysis Methods," International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Robotics Research, Vol. 15, No. 4, pp. 404-412, 2026. doi: 10.18178/ijmerr.15.4.404-412

Copyright © 2026 by the authors. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).